Medium-scale farms in Sub-Saharan Africa

Current development discourses highlight the transformative potential of emerging medium-scale farms (MSF) in rural Sub-Saharan Africa. MSF, often defined as farming operations with land holdings of 5-100 ha, have been linked to increases in land and labor productivity, including through increased use of capital, inputs, and mechanization, as well as crop diversification. Additional spillovers on neighboring small-scale farms comprise learning and cost effects, changing land tenure security, as well as broader changes in labor markets, agricultural production, and rural development. The contexts in which MSF emerge remain poorly understood, though improved accessibility conditions, land tenure regulations, and economic development may be supporting factors. The emergence of MSF may accelerate forest loss through direct deforestation, in particular when MSF produce commodities with high price elasticity of demand, or through indirect pathways, e.g., smallholder displacement. Our current knowledge of the locations, rates, and conditions of MSF emergence as well as their contribution to deforestation is, however, limited. The overarching objective of this project is to unravel where, at which rates, and under which circumstances MSF emerge, and to assess their contribution to recent deforestation. This objective will be pursued by 1) using EO and deep learning to map individual fields at very high spatial resolution in selected countries and for two points in time, 2) estimating farm size from EO-based field delineations to reveal hotspots of MSF emergence, and 3) integrating these data with deforestation maps to analyze the contribution of MSF to recent deforestation. We selected Mozambique as an initial target country due to the high heterogeneity of the regional agricultural systems, the documented emergence of MSF, and widespread forest cover loss. We are building on a dense network of collaborating researchers and institutions, and a wealth of readily available reference data and in-situ knowledge of the processes at play. The project will provide the first large-scale, spatially detailed, and temporally precise picture of MSF emergence, which is a crucial contemporary dynamic in rural Sub-Saharan Africa expected to have deep consequences on land use, farming, rural development, deforestation, and other sustainability concerns.